Economic Sentiment in Q1 2025

A recent speech by Tom Barkin (Richmond Federal Reserve Bank, and previously CFO at McKinsey) really stuck with me. He compared today’s economy to driving in dense fog—not the usual “forecasting is hard” kind, but “zero visibility, pull over and turn on your hazards” kind of fog.

That metaphor hits home. Also "Businesses aren’t pulling back, but they’re not pushing forward either." The hesitation isn’t from weakness—it’s from uncertainty.

Thanks to a recent shift in policies—tariffs, immigration, taxes, deregulation, government spending—and a 24/7 news cycle, it has fueled a market reaction. We knew change was coming, but we didn't know how far the changes would go. 

Why it matters:

--If your transformation efforts feel stalled—it may not be the plan, but the mood.

--If teams seem hesitant to make major investment decisions—it’s likely the fog, not resistance.

--If your customers or partners are pausing—it could be less about numbers and more about nerves.

Sentiment drives action. And today, sentiment is muted. I’m focused on staying steady, reading signals, and helping teams build clarity where we can—so we’re ready to move when the fog lifts.